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Just Transition and the Labour Market in South Africa


South Africa finds itself at the early stages of transitioning away from coal, a move that is not devoid of socio-economic costs. Coal is a relatively cheap energy source, accounting for USD 3.8 billion and 4% of total merchandise exports, and is a source of employment and livelihood for many South Africans.

Despite these socio-economic costs, delaying the transition could also prove costly, especially in light of evolving trade protocols that increasingly demand environmentally friendly alternatives such as electric vehicles or green steel.

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In this paper, we provide a robust quantitative estimate of jobs—both direct and indirect—associated with the coal sector in South Africa, and in so doing, explore the labour market profile and characteristics of the individuals and households linked to the coal sector.

In particular, we are interested in the size and shape of the coal labour market. Understanding the labour market implications associated with a transition is pivotal in shaping policy decisions linked to the just transition.

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